Rookie Composite Score Ratings

I recently wrote a blog entry on NBA rookies as ranked by a relatively new and promising stat called a Roland Rating. If you missed it you can read it here.

Today I chanced upon a new entry in the quest for the holy grail of NBA stats that has been compiled by Basketball-Statistics.com. They call it the “Composite Score”, abbreviated CS % in the  table below. I hope I am flattering them by extracting rookie data from their league wide rankings. The league wide ranking is the “Full Rank” in the table.

Please do yourself a favor and read their own descriptions of the stat and bookmark their site to check back for their further breakdown of their own data. the site is: http://basketball-statistics.com/.

In this table I have sorted NBA rookie stats by the offense only half of their composite measure. I have no doubt that the Composite Score does exactly what it’s creator  intend. It captures the total contribution a given player. But in sorting their data in every possible way, I found that I can make more sense out of the offense-onlystat.  I think that a couple of factors explain why offensive-only stats seem to reflect NBA decision making better for rookies.

• Fewer rookie come to the NBA with polished defensive skills. On a good team they wouldn’t play.
• The best rookies go to the worst teams. They play because offense puts butts in seats.

I’ve added a few comments.

Take a look:

NBA Rookie Basketball-Statistics.com Composite Scores

Full Rank	Player	Team	Off Rank	Def Rank	CS Rank
186	mayo,o.j.	mem	79	292	11
Obviously O.J.’s offense outweighs his defense for young, building Grizzlies.
93	augustin,d.j.	cha	83	128	4
Now you see why Felton is on the block. NBA ready on both ends of the floor.
60	westbrook,russell	okl	91	41	1
Playing like a veteran. Lack of flash discounts his ROY chances.
110	oden,greg	por	100	146	6
Composite scores show why he is starting. nice validation of the stat.
224	speights,marrees	phi	104	305	15
Defense needs lots of work, but his offense earns some burn.
61	chalmers,mario	mia	117	32	2
Miami’s “other” rookie outshines Beasley and makes trade for pg less likely.
146	rose,derrick	chi	123	185	10
Despite all the hall-of-fame potential, CS shows his big minutes may be hurting him and Bulls.
86	hill,george	san	133	63	3
CS shows unheralded rookie fills in nicely for Parker.
214	belinelli,marco	gsw	135	283	14
Shooting guard who can do just that. No “D”? Well, after all,it’s Nellie ball.
140	fernandez,rudy	por	141	155	9
CS show there are flaws in his game that hustle and flow won’t cure.
131	barea,juan_jose	dal	147	138	7
CS composite shows why he is earning playing time. Look out Kidd!
136	lopez,brook	njn	159	127	8
Overall CS rank compares favorably to O.J., making their draft day trade look better.
240	gray,aaron	chi	182	285	18
The Bulls may have found something here.
265	mcgee,javale	was	200	295	23
205	lee,courtney	orl	220	176	13
Overall rank (13) shows he has some promise.
237	thompson,jason	sac	221	232	17
103	mbah_a_moute,luc	mil	225	28	5
Defense, defense, defense.
267	beasley,michael	mia	227	280	24
His rank (24) validates CS as a useful stat for insight into NBA decisions.
259	mcguire,dominic	was	229	268	21
299	lopez,robin	pho	233	317	29
261	hawes,spencer	sac	247	236	22
He’s fallen off from early promise.
254	arthur,darrell	mem	255	213	19
257	hickson,j.j.	cle	265	204	20
204	koufos,kosta	uta	280	71	12
That overall rank of 12th among rookies shows why he’s playing.
297	greene,donte	sac	281	271	28
236	ross,quinton	mem	284	109	16
301	randolph,anthony	gsw	289	275	30
286	hibbert,roy	ind	292	218	26
You still can’t teach tall.
290	rush,brandon	ind	298	223	27
I thought this guy had game. Not showing it so far.
269	ukic,roko	tor	314	70	25
His defense and assists are earning him a little time.
319	dragic,goran	pho	319	273	31
Long term project being groomed to replace Nash.

“Like Erick Dampier on a really good day”

First impressions matter more in basketball than in any other sport, and they can be savored only in person. Players can’t hide behind pads or helmets, so we can stare at them, evaluate every move they make: running, jumping, walking, even ogling the cheerleaders. We can see every ripple and tattoo. If they’re lazy, we can tell. If they have a lousy attitude, we can tell. If their teammates dislike them, we can tell. It’s the most naked sport, if that makes sense.
THE SPORTS GUY I hate being wrong. Except when it’s about Greg Oden. by Bill Simmons

I couldn’t agree more with Bill Simmons so I had to see Greg Oden for myself last night against the Hornets.

My own way of forming those first impressions when I have literally never laid eyes on a player, say a hyped  college phenom, is to avoid learning their identity before game time and just watch the game. I want to see somebody’s game just jump out at me, like a man-among-boys.

Of course, Greg Oden does stand out…like an old man among boys.

That was a cheap shot, and didn’t really sum up my impression. Greg Oden is imposing.

I saw a big man who knew how to use his size to advantage:

• He consistently boxed out for rebounds, a fundamental lost on many young bigs.
• He got deep post position on offense and scored with authority a couple of times.
• He altered the Hornets game plan by his presence in the lane on defense. Chris Paul shot few of his patented floaters, he dished to teammates when he penetrated instead.

That having been said,I did not see what looked like the next great NBA big man. I am old enough to have seen Wilt in his prime, dominant enough that they widened the lane in an attempt to stop him from making a complete mockery of the record book. I saw Shaq at LSU and you just knew what you were seeing.

Like Bill Simmons I hope that it’s just that Oden needs time to recover from micro fracture surgery.

I titled this blog with another quote from that Simmons ESPN article. He said that Oden looked like “Erick Dampier on a really good day”. Now I think that on good days Erick Dampier is very good indeed, and Greg Oden may be that good on a nightly basis, but that’s not hall-of-fame good. As someone who is soon going to move to Tacoma and adopt the Trail Blazers as my home team, I will have to be happy with that.